Can You Time the Kansas City Market? A New Study Says Don't Try.
Almost every buyer asks me some version of the same question: should I buy now, or wait for rates to drop?
That makes sense. It's a real financial decision, not just an emotional one. But a new study from AD Mortgage just put actual numbers behind the question, and the answer holds up even when I look at it against what's happening here in KC.
The study, in plain terms
AD Mortgage pulled 20+ years of data (2000 through 2022, all 50 states) and asked a simple question: if you buy a home today versus waiting two years, which one leaves you better off financially?
Buying now won in 61% of the scenarios they tested. In California and Florida, where prices climbed fastest, it was 74%. (Real Estate News, Sept. 10, 2026)
Here's the part that surprises people: even when rates actually did fall, waiting still usually lost. Buyers who purchased in 2013 came out ahead of buyers who waited until 2015 in 84% of state scenarios, despite rates dropping from 3.98% to 3.85% over that stretch. Home prices moved faster than the rate savings did.
The exception, and it's a real one: 2007 to 2010. During the financial crisis, waiting was the better move in 100% of scenarios. So this isn't "always buy, no matter what." It's "your financial readiness matters more than trying to guess the Fed's next move."
What I see happening in Kansas City right now
The national numbers are useful, but you live here, not in a national average. So here's where our market actually stands, straight from Heartland MLS data:
Median home price: $349,900 in July, up 3.9% from a year ago. (Metropolitan Mortgage, Heartland MLS report)
Inventory: 8,258 homes for sale, down 5.2% year over year, supply is tightening, not loosening.
Days on market: 36, up slightly from 34 last year, but still fast.
Months of supply: 2.6, still seller-leaning territory, even with more listings hitting the market than a year ago.
Sellers are getting 98.1% of their original list price, on average.
And on the financing side, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.76% as of September 10, up from 6.35% a year ago. (Freddie Mac PMMS) Rates went the "wrong" direction over the past year, and prices still climbed. That's the exact pattern the AD Mortgage study found nationally, playing out here.
The myth I want to correct
A lot of buyers think "wait for rates to drop" is a strategy. It's not. It's a guess, and the data says it's usually a losing one. Prices in a market like ours, with inventory this tight, tend to outpace whatever you'd save from a lower rate. You can always refinance a rate. You can't refinance the two years of appreciation you missed.
The better question isn't "will rates drop." It's "am I actually ready." That's a question you can answer today, with numbers you control: your credit, your budget, your reserves. Not a Fed forecast.
Where to start
If you want to see where you stand, that's exactly what our free Financial Preparedness Guide walks through: five steps to know your real number, clean up your credit, and get pre-approved before you're competing for a house in a 36-day market.
[Download the free Financial Preparedness Guide →]
Want to run your specific numbers instead of the averages? Email me at alex@larsongroupkc.com.
This post is for general informational purposes and isn't financial or lending advice. Talk to a licensed lender about guidance specific to your situation.
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